“What’s the best way to teach probability to high school students?”
This is a frequently asked question, so let’s break it down together.
Probability doesn’t always get the love it deserves.
It’s one of those math topics where students immediately ask, “When will I ever need this?”
And honestly, who can blame them?
When all they’ve seen are worksheets filled with dice rolls and coin flips, it’s no wonder they’re not exactly thrilled.
But here’s the thing: probability is everywhere.
It’s in the games we play, the decisions we make, and even the weather forecasts we check (though let’s not talk about how often those are wrong).
Teaching probability is about showing students how to understand the odds—not just in math class, but in life.
The problem? Getting them excited about it.
➡️ That’s where the Probability Fair Project comes in.
This isn’t your typical sit-down-and-solve kind of activity.
It’s hands-on, collaborative, and downright fun.
Your students will get to design their own games, figure out if they’re fair, and even host a full-on carnival-style fair.
If you’re short on time, definitely go check out that resource – because it’s all pretty much ready to go!
But if you need some strategies and tips, definitely start with this article.
About Kristen and Moore Than X
I’m a high school math teacher who’s passionate about project-based learning, and making math relevant for students.
You can learn more about me and Moore Than X here.
@moorethanjustx When am I ever going to need this? let’s plan a project: algebra 2 exponentials edition! #algebra2 #pbl #mathteachersoftiktok #realworldmath #algebrateacher ♬ original sound – Kristen
The Challenge of Teaching Probability to High School Students
Teaching probability to high schoolers can feel like rolling the dice—you’re never quite sure if they’ll engage or tune out.
For a lot of students, probability comes across as either too abstract or too simple, like flipping coins and rolling dice over and over with no clear connection to the real world.
Nothing makes their eyes glaze over faster than “Let’s calculate the probability of picking a red marble out of a bag!”
The real struggle is making it relevant.
How do you get students to see that probability isn’t just a bunch of numbers— that it’s a powerful tool they can use to make decisions and analyze risks?
And, even those outcomes don’t sound super fun – so how do we get students excited about developing those skills?
What’s missing is the wow factor—a way to show students that probability is more than just math on paper.
On top of that, we want to get them involved in activities and lessons that help them see how they can use the content now – not in the far off future when they’re adults.
What Exactly Is Probability (A Quick Refresher for Educators)
Whether you’re new to teaching, or it’s just been a while since you planned a probability lesson – here’s a quick overview.
Probability is all about figuring out how likely something is to happen.
Basically, it’s the math version of asking, “What are the odds?”
At its core, probability is simple:
- Theoretical Probability
What should happen in a perfect world. (Example: rolling a 6 on a standard die has a 1 in 6 chance—easy peasy!) - Experimental Probability
What actually happens when you try it out. (Spoiler: sometimes you roll five 6s in a row and start questioning reality.) - Independent and Dependent Events
Whether one outcome affects another, like drawing cards without replacing them—because, let’s face it, life isn’t always fair.
Probability shows up everywhere: sports stats, business forecasts, game design, and even figuring out whether it’s worth hitting “snooze” one more time.
Teaching it is about helping students see those connections—and that’s where the magic happens.
If you’re thinking, “Okay, but how do I make this click for my students?” don’t worry—that’s what this project is here for.
It’s not just about memorizing formulas.
It’s about showing students how probability works in real life, with hands-on fun and creativity baked right in.
Probability Fairs: The Best Way to Teach Probability to High School Students
High school students love games, too.
Their love for games just looks a bit different.
In a Probability Fair, your students get a hands-on way to practice and observe probability in real time.
Here’s how it works:
- Explore Probability Concepts
Students dive into theoretical vs. experimental probability, independent vs. dependent events, and (the best part) determining if a game is actually fair. - Create a Game
They’ll analyze classic games, like spinners and dice rolls, then use that inspiration to create their own. - Host the Probability Fair
The grand finale! Students set up their games, test them out on each other, and collect data to analyze the experimental probability of winning.
Probability Fairs can be as simple or as involved as you want for them to be.
The most important part of it is, encouraging students to take accountability and responsibility for their own learning – which actually leaves less work for you and more skill development for them.
The Concept of “Fairness”
Aside from teaching probability, there’s an underlying lesson in fairness that students can explore.
Using the data they collect, and the game design considerations for each game, they can create a (somewhat) objective system for determining whether or not a game is fair.
This can lead to some interesting discussions, and organic opportunities for students to think through fairness in other topics like:
- College admissions
- Sports statistics
- Winning a contest, competition, or raffle
- Inheriting genetic traits
- The likelihood of a TikTok to go viral
For students, the concept of fairness takes probability from “just numbers” to something they can actually understand and use in everyday life.
They start asking questions like:
- If the spinner has more red than blue, is the game rigged?
- Does “the house” always win?
- Can I make a game that feels fair but still gives me the edge?
When taking part in a Probability Fair, students don’t just learn the math behind fairness—they apply it.
As they analyze, design, and test their own games, they explore the relationship between theoretical and experimental probability, identifying how small changes can tip the scales in or out of a player’s favor.
Conclusion: The Best Way to Teach Probability is Through Application
And I’d argue this doesn’t just apply to probability.
One of the reasons project-based learning is so effective, is because it gives students immediate opportunities for practice and application.
It helps them move beyond recall when thinking about Depths of Knowledge.
They’re able to fully understand a concept – explaining it in their own words, and using it in their daily life.
➡️ I have everything you need to run a Probability Fair here in this resource.
Give it a try and see what your students are capable of!
Your Next Steps
Looking to add more project based learning to your classroom this year?
If so, then you’ll definitely want to grab the Gold Standard Project Planner!
It’s totally free.
You’ll just enter your name and email address, and it’ll make its way to your email inbox.
Once you grab that, I’d love to hear your thoughts over on Instagram at @moorethanjustx.
